Middle East Archives - Bob on Books

War, Bob Woodward. Simon & Schuster (ISBN: 9781668052273) 2024.

Summary: A behind-the-scenes account of three wars during the Biden administration–Ukraine, the Middle East, and for the American presidency.

I have not read a single Bob Woodward book since All The President’s Men during the Watergate years. In all, he has written or co-written twenty two of them covering every presidency beginning with Richard Nixon up to the present. War covers the Biden presidency and draws its title from three wars that have defined the administration–in Ukraine, in the Middle East, and with Donald Trump for the American presidency.

Woodward begins by recollecting a party with Donald Trump to which he had been invited in 1989. Even then Trump, though not thinking about political office defined his life by fighting, rolling with the punches, and winning. He then fast forwards to January 6, 2021 and the President’s reluctant exit from office. Once Joe Biden is in office, there was an impression that President Trump would fade into the background. The Republicans and the nation would move on. As we all know, and the book records, it was the Trump of 1989 that prevailed. What the book illuminates is the key role of Lindsay Graham in encouraging another run. Woodward traces the coalescence of a campaign around grievance–immigration, inflation, foreign involvements including the badly handled exit in Afghanistan, set up by Trump’s own agreement with the Taliban.

However, much of the book concerns two other conflicts. One is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What is striking in Woodward’s recounting, first, is the amount of intelligence the U.S, had. We clearly knew more than Zelensky and had a hard time convincing him of what he was facing. What is also striking are the wise and intricate moves to both support Ukraine without escalating the conflict into a global war, or even a nuclear war. Joe Biden, Tony Blinken, and Lloyd Austin played crucial roles. Austin, in particular, may have averted the use of tactical nuclear weapons in a confrontation with his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who told Austin he didn’t like being threatened. Austin replied, “Mr. Minister, I am the leader of the most powerful military in the history of the world. I don’t make threats.”

The book also pointed up the critical importance of artillery to the ground war. Our highly advanced technology often features jets and missile defense. But the lowly 155 mm artillery shell is of critical importance and the US alone did not have enough to send Ukraine. This led to the substitution of more lethal cluster munitions, which the Russians were already using.

The other conflict was the war of Israel against Hamas in Gaza after the brutal October 7, 2023 attack. We learn that the public support for Israel was tempered with private entreaties for more humanitarian aid, as well as tempered approaches to attacks on Gaza. Meanwhile, we learn that outside Iran, few Middle East leaders had anything good to say about Hamas. Their concerns were the Palestinian people. Again, Woodward traces U.S. efforts to both stand with and temper Israeli efforts. Netanyahu felt he had to strike hard in response to Israel’s failure to protect its people. But the U.S. saw the danger of a widening conflict with Hezbollah to the north and Iran. An all-out war would involve the U.S as Israel’s staunchest ally. Again, the combination of deft diplomacy and parrying attacks has stopped this so far.

All this underscored to me how important are the top advisors to the president. This includes those in National Security, the Secretaries of State and Defense, and Intelligence Directors. Given our dangerous world, these appointments are critically important. At this juncture, U.S. troops are not at war anywhere in the world.

The book concludes with the political tumult of the early summer of 2024. Woodward recounts Joe Bidens signs of decline and poor debate performance, the first assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Biden’s decision to drop out of the race and the nomination of Kamala Harris. It also concludes with his appraisals of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. On Trump, he writes that he “is not only the wrong man for the presidency, he is unfit to lead the country.” On Biden, he writes, “I believe president Biden and this team will be largely studied in history as an example of steady and purposeful leadership.”

I realize that this is a hotly contended assessment. All I will say is that his account convinced me of his verdict on Biden. And I hope time will prove him wrong on Trump for the sake of the country. Woodward has given us, in this, and his previous books, a first, journalist’s draft of the history of these times. There will be much more research, analysis, and assessment. But these “in the moment” accounts serve as a good basis for future accounts, captured while sources are alive to render the accounts. Add to this a crisp, engaging style and what you have is both a good and important read.

Cover image of "Surviving the Islamic State" by Austin J. Knuppe

Surviving the Islamic State, Austin J. Knuppe. Columbia University Press (ISBN: 9780231213875), 2024.

Summary: A comprehensive study of how civilians survived Islamic State occupation in various communities throughout Iraq.

The current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have foregrounded the experience of civilians under enemy occupation. We tend to hear more about war-time deaths, injuries, and atrocities. But how do the rest of the population survive? For current conflicts, the answers are still emerging. But a case study of the recent Islamic State (IS) occupation in Iraq offers a wealth of data on the repertoire of survival strategies used by civilians during the time the insurgents were in control. This work represents a comprehensive attempt to study civilian responses both in areas under insurgent control and others, like Baghdad, under insurgent attack but government control.

The work begins with an overview of survival repertoires. Community membership and the degree of shared identity is a crucial factor in assessing threat. This determines whether one flees or stays. For those who stay, many will try to stay under the radar. When this is not possible, they must choose between neutrality, cooperation, and contention, sometimes blending approaches such as complying with religious rules while informing to the government or otherwise covertly, and sometimes overtly, resisting. Knuppe then traces the rise and fall of the Islamic State beginning with the US withdrawal in 2011, the rise and spread of IS control from 2012 to 2014, and the anti-IS offensive by a coalition of forces leading to their defeat from 2014 to 2017.

The following chapters offer empirical analysis of the responses to IS threats in different regions. The author begins (chapter 4) with Baghdad, drawing on his own data gathering from a representative sample of Baghdad residents, many who were Shia. He shows shifts from government support to neutrality or even collaboration with US forces as the threat shifted from IS attacks to neighborhood militias.

Chapter 5 covers the Sunnis in the cities of Fallujah, Ramadi, and Tikrit in Anbar province. These people had been politically excluded by the Shia government. As a result, many sought to remain neutral or acquiesce to IS control to survive. Chapter 6 turns to the Ninewa Governate of the north. Here, ethnoreligious minorities of Assyrians, Kurds, and Yazidis faced brutal suppression or genocide, necessitating flight by many. Knuppe traces the internal displacement and return of these people. He examines the strategies of neutrality and cooperation of those who remained.

The final chapter considers the argument of this book. It is that civilians survival strategies reflect their evaluation of the threat. They consider whether they share an identity with the insurgent. People evaluate the insurgents reputation to determine how they will be treated. Finally, the level of coercive behavior and indiscriminate violence helps people decide when to leave. Threat evaluation determines whether they try to remain neutral, cooperate, or contend if they stay.

One distinction of this book is the resourceful and ethical research methods used by the author both in the study of Baghdad’s population and the informant-based work that complemented the use of data sets in Anbar. He offers a far more nuanced and pragmatic array of threat responses that involves fine-grained analysis of the diverse peoples of Iraq. And he sets these responses within the context of Iraq’s complex politics since the fall of Hussein. This makes the work a valuable resource for not only Iraq and Middle East scholars but for others studying the impact on civilian populations of wartime occupation.

____________________

Disclosure of Material Connection: I received a complimentary copy of this book from the publisher for review.